* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 32 35 35 29 25 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 31 32 35 35 29 26 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 30 30 29 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 12 11 10 4 16 32 53 67 72 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 2 -1 7 5 4 2 -7 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 72 77 87 87 83 133 198 224 228 227 225 231 224 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.8 28.9 28.2 26.6 25.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 144 142 140 145 153 154 147 131 116 99 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 58 58 59 59 58 56 50 44 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 32 28 16 18 22 19 20 28 77 47 59 25 200 MB DIV 55 54 54 33 40 35 30 49 83 52 29 10 4 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 -9 28 27 16 -60 LAND (KM) 452 463 476 511 546 501 345 204 60 -200 -467 -545 -485 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 18.4 19.8 21.5 23.4 25.4 27.5 29.5 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.5 108.8 109.4 109.9 110.4 109.8 108.7 107.4 105.9 104.3 102.5 100.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 5 6 9 11 11 13 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 13 11 9 9 12 10 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 0. -7. -18. -29. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. -1. -5. -13. -21. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/01/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##