* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 30 32 33 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 30 32 33 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 12 9 12 6 9 28 55 71 70 68 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 4 1 2 7 6 1 -10 -4 -4 -14 SHEAR DIR 73 81 83 70 108 176 221 235 227 231 228 232 225 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.8 28.2 26.7 26.1 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 142 140 140 146 154 148 130 123 114 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -53.1 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 4 5 3 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 57 57 57 57 53 48 35 33 29 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 12 12 11 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 10 15 23 14 20 24 70 81 48 37 1 200 MB DIV 46 58 29 44 45 -2 32 69 93 24 2 -2 -8 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -2 -1 -7 -8 -3 50 0 -23 -66 LAND (KM) 445 485 528 549 568 437 222 92 -176 -386 -503 -602 -517 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.5 17.8 19.0 20.9 23.2 25.8 27.4 28.2 29.3 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.8 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.6 109.9 108.5 106.6 105.2 104.4 103.2 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 5 8 12 14 13 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 11 9 6 9 7 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -5. -17. -29. -39. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. -11. -20. -29. -38. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##