* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 31 29 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 15 13 8 23 50 75 73 85 89 89 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 0 9 6 1 -10 -10 -9 -12 -15 SHEAR DIR 69 82 89 114 140 210 227 233 236 233 229 227 241 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.7 28.6 26.6 24.9 22.0 20.7 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 143 141 140 143 153 152 132 114 84 67 59 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 57 56 53 49 44 43 39 44 48 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 4 7 22 13 8 25 19 70 67 35 19 -11 200 MB DIV 43 20 21 44 19 30 50 52 37 34 27 20 -25 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 1 2 -4 7 40 32 -10 -83 -73 LAND (KM) 450 486 522 516 489 311 126 -44 -385 -664 -608 -556 -651 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.5 20.1 22.3 24.8 27.5 30.0 32.4 33.7 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.1 109.7 110.0 110.2 110.1 108.8 107.4 105.3 103.6 100.7 98.0 98.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 6 10 14 15 15 16 15 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 11 10 9 6 8 34 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 24. 23. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -14. -29. -44. -59. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -20. -33. -48. -64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##