* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 34 35 28 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 34 35 28 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 13 12 9 15 39 65 72 67 72 81 94 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 4 10 3 2 -6 4 -3 -13 -32 SHEAR DIR 79 83 116 148 186 220 235 230 233 230 230 230 236 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.8 27.5 25.9 24.6 22.9 22.2 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 141 142 149 154 140 123 110 92 82 72 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.6 -54.1 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 5 6 3 5 3 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 54 56 55 53 51 48 43 42 40 42 33 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 26 19 14 19 33 49 62 56 14 -20 -75 200 MB DIV 19 27 37 16 -6 31 50 40 24 1 0 -9 -43 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 0 -5 -9 12 48 13 -54 -103 -93 LAND (KM) 465 492 522 444 367 132 30 -230 -510 -599 -514 -437 -493 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.9 19.6 21.8 24.4 26.6 28.4 30.3 31.8 32.4 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.5 110.1 110.2 110.2 109.5 108.0 106.5 104.5 102.7 100.0 97.9 98.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 7 9 13 14 13 13 13 11 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 7 6 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -6. -20. -34. -47. -59. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. -2. -4. -13. -24. -36. -50. -66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##