* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 7 8 25 53 72 70 67 66 77 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 8 13 9 4 0 0 0 -2 -14 -23 SHEAR DIR 84 114 138 164 190 228 237 232 223 229 231 236 239 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.7 28.4 26.8 25.9 24.9 24.2 24.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 141 142 145 153 150 132 122 112 104 100 94 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -53.7 -55.4 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 53 51 50 50 46 41 38 41 39 35 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 24 17 13 17 26 28 69 41 54 0 -42 -108 200 MB DIV 37 44 32 2 20 35 56 31 28 14 0 -12 -19 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 2 1 -5 10 28 15 11 -38 -50 -34 LAND (KM) 526 533 512 411 311 75 -112 -326 -517 -597 -482 -410 -434 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.2 20.1 22.8 25.6 27.4 28.5 29.9 30.7 31.0 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.0 110.4 110.2 109.9 108.9 107.2 106.0 104.5 102.9 100.9 99.4 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 12 15 13 9 9 10 8 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 8 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. -10. -24. -39. -51. -62. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -3. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -16. -24. -35. -45. -57. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##