* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 26 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 30 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 9 15 36 69 76 71 79 76 74 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 5 9 10 8 -1 -6 3 -10 -2 -7 N/A SHEAR DIR 118 145 163 198 220 229 231 231 230 234 242 253 N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.7 27.5 25.6 23.7 22.5 21.1 20.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 146 151 153 141 121 101 85 70 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -52.0 -54.2 -56.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 4 5 3 3 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 51 52 47 43 39 40 41 24 18 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 16 12 9 33 54 81 51 2 -51 -108 N/A 200 MB DIV 24 24 16 30 34 64 47 15 10 -3 -44 -60 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 -2 -10 9 35 7 -78 -61 -36 N/A LAND (KM) 530 495 437 294 171 60 -246 -489 -652 -564 -675 -665 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.5 19.0 20.3 21.5 24.0 26.6 28.9 31.1 32.1 33.0 33.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.3 110.6 110.0 109.3 108.0 106.3 105.1 102.8 100.4 101.0 99.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 9 14 14 14 14 13 13 6 4 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 6 7 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -3. -15. -31. -49. -64. -76. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. -4. -5. -11. -23. -38. -54. -69. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/03/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##