* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SONIA EP182013 11/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 31 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 31 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 18 26 51 76 74 76 79 85 78 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 0 -7 -5 0 -12 -16 -16 N/A SHEAR DIR 130 192 215 231 238 234 233 228 230 233 244 250 N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.9 28.5 26.6 25.1 22.8 21.9 20.6 20.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 147 153 155 151 131 115 91 79 65 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -53.2 -55.2 -57.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 51 50 46 50 52 53 44 26 16 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 12 17 31 24 62 65 22 -7 -58 -128 N/A 200 MB DIV 10 0 23 36 47 65 59 54 28 10 -41 -52 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 1 -2 1 8 38 43 4 -62 -53 -61 N/A LAND (KM) 488 394 301 189 134 -111 -393 -644 -603 -536 -630 -608 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.4 20.2 21.5 22.8 25.1 27.5 29.7 31.8 32.6 33.6 34.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 109.9 109.7 109.0 108.2 106.8 105.2 103.8 101.4 99.3 99.4 98.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 15 14 13 13 14 12 6 5 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 11 9 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 15. 16. 14. 11. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -7. -20. -37. -57. -73. -86. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -22. -36. -52. -68. -83. -90. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##