* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SONIA EP182013 11/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 41 39 35 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 41 39 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 47 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 16 24 37 59 73 71 81 86 85 76 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 7 3 1 -6 4 -7 -19 -20 -11 N/A SHEAR DIR 159 202 216 234 234 230 231 235 233 235 240 246 N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.9 28.8 28.0 26.2 25.0 23.0 22.1 20.9 20.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 150 155 154 145 126 114 93 81 68 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -53.5 -55.9 -56.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 5 4 5 3 4 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 51 49 48 50 45 48 40 25 15 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 9 25 18 34 58 51 4 -20 -66 -132 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 22 34 52 48 62 43 16 11 -14 -39 -77 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 0 -2 11 46 26 -40 -84 -103 -81 N/A LAND (KM) 400 291 195 143 37 -230 -513 -566 -525 -471 -543 -514 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.5 23.7 25.8 28.0 29.8 31.7 32.5 33.5 33.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 109.6 109.2 108.3 107.4 105.9 104.1 102.6 100.3 98.3 98.1 96.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 15 14 13 12 13 11 6 5 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 12. 10. 7. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -11. -25. -42. -62. -79. -91. -96. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -1. -5. -11. -21. -36. -54. -72. -89.-100. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##