* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SONIA EP182013 11/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 38 34 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 38 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 42 42 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 18 27 37 45 67 72 68 80 87 81 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 6 4 0 -2 7 -9 -15 -15 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 230 244 239 236 235 230 231 225 236 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.5 26.8 25.3 23.5 22.2 20.7 20.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 155 152 151 133 117 98 83 66 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.3 -52.2 -53.9 -56.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 51 51 49 50 49 46 42 26 14 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 20 23 21 57 66 35 22 -20 -114 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 29 42 45 64 49 49 18 26 -20 -58 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 3 -3 7 49 44 0 -108 -122 -94 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 241 171 127 0 -126 -421 -602 -530 -485 -569 -551 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.0 25.0 27.3 29.3 31.3 32.4 33.6 34.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.4 108.7 107.9 107.2 106.5 104.7 103.2 100.9 98.7 98.4 97.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 10 30 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -15. -29. -48. -69. -87. -94. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -1. 1. -1. -4. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -17. -30. -46. -65. -85. -97.-110. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##