* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SONIA EP182013 11/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 30 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 31 40 49 62 73 68 72 81 83 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 7 5 2 -2 7 0 -18 -24 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 240 240 237 233 232 234 229 226 239 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.5 26.0 24.9 24.5 23.8 23.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 148 139 124 112 105 97 93 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -53.8 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 5 3 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 46 46 44 44 41 27 19 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 27 30 24 45 75 66 39 -12 -92 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 48 61 58 53 24 12 -4 -29 -31 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -2 10 17 49 27 -50 -84 -44 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 128 86 -37 -163 -283 -481 -588 -483 -562 -515 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.5 28.3 29.9 30.4 31.1 31.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 107.9 107.3 106.6 105.8 104.8 102.8 101.2 101.6 100.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 11 10 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 11 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -17. -33. -54. -76. -88. -95.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -8. -10. -15. -23. -36. -52. -70. -82. -91. -97. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 SONIA 11/04/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 SONIA 11/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##