* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SONIA EP182013 11/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 45 55 65 66 65 58 53 80 87 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 3 2 4 9 10 -9 -16 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 239 235 236 240 236 246 234 233 235 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.6 25.9 24.5 22.9 22.6 21.8 22.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 141 132 124 110 93 87 78 84 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 4 4 2 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 49 48 49 50 45 38 26 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 17 17 11 10 34 19 -10 -42 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 72 66 58 50 55 65 49 0 -49 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 0 17 39 77 81 98 1 -95 -126 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -14 -152 -283 -475 -527 -418 -317 -292 -367 -314 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 30.4 32.0 32.4 33.1 33.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.4 106.6 105.8 104.2 102.6 100.3 96.4 93.8 93.5 90.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 15 17 16 16 15 7 7 13 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 19 CX,CY: 10/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -18. -32. -54. -77. -90. -98.-103. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -8. -4. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -14. -23. -36. -50. -68. -86. -98.-107.-112. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182013 SONIA 11/04/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 SONIA 11/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##