* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 59 65 70 77 79 78 78 78 72 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 59 65 70 77 79 78 78 78 72 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 50 52 56 64 69 69 64 56 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 40 31 22 19 11 13 22 34 46 49 40 34 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -7 -2 -3 0 0 -3 -1 -5 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 171 166 186 213 249 202 198 203 213 227 247 268 117 SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.3 23.7 23.1 22.1 19.7 17.8 16.3 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 107 104 100 100 99 97 93 83 76 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 97 93 89 85 88 89 89 87 78 71 68 66 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -57.0 -57.5 -57.6 -58.0 -58.8 -58.7 -58.7 -58.6 -58.3 -59.0 -58.6 -59.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 48 45 46 43 41 38 35 39 33 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 32 33 33 31 28 26 28 29 30 34 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 221 198 167 147 131 140 123 96 93 116 -46 -51 -50 200 MB DIV 108 46 54 46 19 55 55 87 47 21 19 26 16 700-850 TADV 9 2 4 2 3 -3 0 -13 -33 -28 26 8 6 LAND (KM) 1733 1751 1725 1653 1582 1542 1483 1485 1617 1910 1500 1286 1113 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.8 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.5 33.5 34.6 36.3 38.8 41.4 44.2 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 53.9 54.5 55.0 55.4 54.0 50.5 45.6 39.5 32.3 27.2 25.0 23.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 5 11 18 24 29 27 19 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -15. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. 2. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 20. 26. 32. 34. 33. 33. 33. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)