* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 61 65 69 73 70 74 78 73 68 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 61 65 69 73 70 74 78 73 68 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 57 59 64 67 66 61 57 55 54 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 22 16 8 9 20 31 27 23 28 12 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -6 -2 0 -1 -3 4 7 4 8 6 3 SHEAR DIR 167 182 213 236 190 196 185 174 169 121 127 166 175 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.6 23.1 21.7 19.2 15.5 13.8 9.8 7.7 6.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 107 105 103 96 90 81 73 70 66 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 93 91 91 92 87 82 76 70 67 65 63 62 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.1 -57.3 -57.7 -58.0 -59.0 -58.9 -58.8 -57.5 -55.9 -54.9 -54.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 49 47 50 41 35 28 28 43 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 32 31 29 26 25 27 24 30 36 33 28 850 MB ENV VOR 196 172 159 147 128 116 113 161 218 200 250 262 239 200 MB DIV 47 62 58 49 42 74 73 26 28 34 50 73 63 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 2 6 -8 -41 -47 -44 -39 0 -9 -92 LAND (KM) 1720 1728 1737 1671 1608 1324 1112 1092 1262 1328 1275 1203 1040 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.0 30.4 31.2 32.0 34.9 37.8 40.9 44.3 47.9 51.5 54.0 55.4 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.4 54.8 54.2 53.6 50.9 46.9 42.1 37.2 35.0 35.7 37.7 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 9 14 20 23 24 22 18 16 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -11. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -7. -10. -4. 1. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 19. 23. 20. 24. 28. 23. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)