* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/19/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 59 63 68 68 67 63 61 63 58 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 59 63 68 68 67 63 61 63 58 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 55 58 62 64 61 58 56 56 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 8 9 19 29 32 17 4 9 6 12 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -4 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 4 6 11 13 5 4 SHEAR DIR 184 213 250 188 191 190 189 154 187 191 252 214 202 SST (C) 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.6 24.0 22.5 20.6 16.7 15.0 13.4 10.4 7.4 6.5 POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 106 103 100 93 86 76 71 68 67 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 92 92 90 86 80 72 68 65 65 65 66 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.9 -57.3 -57.8 -58.2 -58.6 -58.5 -58.0 -56.5 -55.6 -53.7 -55.2 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 42 44 48 46 37 30 33 46 59 75 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 32 30 29 27 25 27 25 23 19 16 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 176 153 138 124 133 118 137 210 174 185 279 208 134 200 MB DIV 61 59 37 47 44 46 54 39 24 50 68 68 58 700-850 TADV 9 5 1 0 0 -23 -32 -26 10 21 99 22 38 LAND (KM) 1711 1731 1666 1592 1500 1213 1089 1199 1434 1462 1255 1156 1178 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.5 31.1 32.2 33.2 36.2 39.3 42.7 45.7 48.6 51.0 54.6 58.8 LONG(DEG W) 54.6 54.7 54.7 53.6 52.5 49.1 44.3 39.0 34.2 33.1 35.9 38.4 39.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 10 14 17 23 25 25 18 13 17 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 26. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 18. 18. 17. 13. 11. 13. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)