* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/19/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 61 65 68 72 66 63 63 59 49 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 61 65 68 72 66 63 63 59 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 61 62 63 62 60 57 54 53 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 17 24 28 27 6 16 21 11 11 23 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -9 -1 3 8 1 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 242 211 199 197 193 205 227 281 271 250 223 260 261 SST (C) 24.8 24.3 23.7 22.9 22.2 20.3 17.0 15.6 14.5 12.8 10.9 10.6 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 99 95 92 85 76 72 70 68 65 63 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 90 90 88 85 80 72 69 66 65 63 61 63 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -58.0 -58.2 -58.3 -58.4 -58.5 -58.7 -58.3 -58.0 -57.8 -58.4 -58.1 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 46 51 52 50 46 39 38 43 47 58 69 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 29 27 26 26 26 24 25 22 18 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 135 119 129 120 124 147 157 89 43 6 -10 27 -8 200 MB DIV 29 53 61 75 58 46 48 21 18 44 72 69 72 700-850 TADV 4 -3 -9 -9 -24 -28 4 36 31 34 39 119 51 LAND (KM) 1624 1548 1445 1292 1167 1126 1378 1619 1424 1211 1122 995 797 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.6 33.7 35.3 36.8 39.8 42.5 45.1 47.7 50.4 53.3 54.9 54.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 53.6 52.4 50.4 48.4 42.9 36.7 32.0 29.0 27.5 27.0 25.3 22.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 19 23 24 27 24 19 15 14 11 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. 33. 34. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 11. 8. 8. 4. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)