* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 60 62 64 65 67 58 55 56 56 52 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 60 62 64 65 67 58 55 56 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 60 60 59 57 54 52 53 54 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 15 21 24 24 14 6 14 25 15 12 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -3 -2 -2 0 9 1 -1 2 4 11 SHEAR DIR 230 215 204 190 188 186 187 271 249 239 216 218 246 SST (C) 24.3 23.7 23.1 22.4 21.6 19.2 16.5 15.6 14.5 12.7 10.1 9.9 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 101 98 96 93 90 81 74 72 70 69 67 62 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 88 86 83 76 70 68 66 67 65 61 62 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.4 -58.5 -58.4 -58.3 -58.4 -58.3 -57.5 -57.3 -57.6 -58.0 -57.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 52 50 49 45 38 35 43 51 50 58 73 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 27 26 26 26 25 24 24 18 16 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 129 138 128 125 125 141 144 98 72 -2 2 83 90 200 MB DIV 36 86 71 44 58 57 33 27 37 59 63 67 60 700-850 TADV 0 0 -8 -23 -25 -36 -4 20 51 31 41 59 13 LAND (KM) 1539 1450 1318 1204 1138 1179 1426 1676 1373 1161 1137 1096 902 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.7 34.9 36.3 37.7 40.6 43.1 45.2 47.4 50.7 55.0 57.3 56.2 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 53.0 51.5 49.0 46.5 41.1 35.7 31.2 28.0 26.9 27.5 26.4 23.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 17 21 25 25 25 21 17 16 19 17 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 903 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -6. -13. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 3. 0. 1. 1. -3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)