* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/20/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 49 52 54 55 50 49 47 44 37 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 49 52 54 55 50 49 47 44 37 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 43 44 47 49 49 47 46 47 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 24 26 26 19 11 24 27 12 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 -3 0 3 9 0 0 7 8 8 SHEAR DIR 207 204 192 192 192 187 235 266 269 253 192 213 264 SST (C) 24.0 23.3 22.7 21.9 21.1 18.7 17.1 15.8 14.3 12.6 10.7 10.5 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 100 97 94 91 88 80 76 73 70 68 66 62 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 87 85 82 75 71 69 67 66 64 60 62 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.2 -58.2 -58.1 -58.4 -58.9 -57.9 -57.8 -58.2 -58.3 -57.7 -56.2 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 44 42 38 37 38 44 42 40 58 67 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 22 20 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 141 128 126 114 115 115 111 72 27 -57 10 70 8 200 MB DIV 75 65 28 51 54 43 25 23 36 47 70 60 30 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -21 -19 -20 -21 14 60 64 55 58 71 17 LAND (KM) 1500 1380 1282 1216 1203 1349 1664 1515 1135 952 996 978 806 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.4 35.5 36.9 38.2 40.8 42.8 45.1 47.8 51.1 54.6 56.6 55.3 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 51.3 49.4 46.7 44.0 38.4 32.7 28.0 24.7 24.0 25.3 24.7 22.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 22 25 25 24 22 19 16 17 14 5 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 842 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 34. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 5. 4. 2. -1. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)