* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/20/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 46 47 50 52 49 43 39 36 32 29 V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 46 47 50 52 49 43 39 36 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 42 43 45 47 47 44 42 44 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 27 28 23 13 15 32 26 17 10 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -3 -3 0 9 4 0 0 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 203 200 199 201 192 205 289 277 282 266 232 229 235 SST (C) 23.4 22.7 21.8 21.3 20.4 18.0 16.4 15.0 13.6 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 91 89 86 79 74 70 69 67 66 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 88 84 83 80 74 70 66 65 65 64 63 65 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -57.9 -57.9 -58.2 -58.6 -59.0 -57.9 -57.9 -57.9 -58.4 -58.7 -59.1 -59.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 42 40 39 37 42 44 43 45 53 57 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 23 23 23 22 23 20 16 12 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 110 101 99 84 117 67 51 -14 -67 -56 -85 -128 200 MB DIV 73 48 46 55 56 30 20 12 27 35 50 45 18 700-850 TADV -8 -13 -10 -7 -27 -4 31 50 34 22 50 26 33 LAND (KM) 1396 1294 1236 1241 1299 1595 1576 1265 1051 906 780 663 328 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.4 41.6 43.9 46.4 49.2 52.2 55.2 56.9 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 48.9 46.3 43.5 40.6 34.4 28.6 25.4 24.5 23.6 21.9 19.1 14.2 STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 25 26 26 25 20 15 15 16 14 11 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 832 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 22. 26. 31. 35. 36. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 4. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)