* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/20/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 55 57 61 60 53 40 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 55 57 61 60 53 40 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 49 50 50 46 40 36 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 18 16 16 12 38 50 55 57 55 49 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -1 8 5 6 2 0 3 4 7 SHEAR DIR 196 201 197 184 210 265 284 290 279 281 280 266 267 SST (C) 22.0 21.5 20.7 19.6 18.4 17.3 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 92 90 87 83 79 77 73 70 70 71 72 72 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 84 81 77 74 72 69 65 64 65 65 66 68 200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.7 -59.1 -59.7 -59.2 -58.6 -59.3 -60.0 -60.3 -60.4 -59.5 -58.2 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 41 42 43 45 45 47 43 46 46 44 40 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 26 26 25 26 25 23 18 14 10 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 102 90 76 96 109 72 46 -7 -23 -2 21 44 87 200 MB DIV 50 49 50 44 25 21 0 -2 -15 -17 -19 -9 -34 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -32 -21 -14 15 37 15 -10 -17 -34 -47 -31 LAND (KM) 1266 1283 1360 1492 1651 1532 1007 782 788 734 649 580 432 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 37.8 39.1 40.1 41.1 42.2 43.0 42.7 41.6 40.9 40.3 39.5 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 43.2 40.0 37.0 34.0 27.8 21.5 18.7 18.5 17.6 16.7 15.9 14.2 STM SPEED (KT) 26 28 27 25 24 23 17 7 5 5 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 25 CX,CY: 22/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 1. -6. -13. -19. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 25. 30. 35. 39. 40. 41. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 16. 15. 8. -5. -16. -25. -33. -34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)