* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/21/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 48 42 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 48 48 42 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 46 45 42 38 34 31 30 28 27 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 16 14 14 16 36 50 63 62 59 52 37 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 4 7 8 5 -3 1 2 6 8 1 SHEAR DIR 196 199 206 233 267 279 284 296 311 297 299 287 291 SST (C) 21.2 20.2 19.0 18.0 17.6 17.1 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.7 18.6 18.9 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 89 85 81 78 77 74 73 74 74 74 74 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 76 74 72 69 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -59.0 -58.8 -58.6 -58.4 -58.6 -59.3 -60.1 -60.2 -59.7 -58.4 -58.1 -58.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 42 45 43 43 46 39 33 31 31 30 26 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 23 22 23 24 21 17 12 8 6 6 9 850 MB ENV VOR 66 74 81 92 73 63 27 -4 25 47 67 55 10 200 MB DIV 43 30 21 9 22 -1 -7 -50 -46 -33 -23 -41 -32 700-850 TADV -38 -17 -13 2 17 38 5 -31 -44 -58 -35 -30 -15 LAND (KM) 1414 1555 1723 1800 1536 1127 845 648 462 285 145 44 -70 LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.3 40.2 40.9 41.6 42.5 42.3 41.4 40.0 39.1 38.5 37.9 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 36.9 33.7 30.7 27.7 22.9 19.4 16.7 14.5 12.5 10.8 9.3 7.7 STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 25 24 21 15 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 28 CX,CY: 25/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 4. -3. -13. -20. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 25. 30. 35. 38. 39. 41. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -19. -18. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -3. -14. -28. -38. -45. -48. -46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED