* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/21/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 47 41 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 47 41 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 47 47 45 40 36 33 31 30 29 29 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 14 23 49 55 65 54 53 50 42 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 9 14 5 1 -4 5 6 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 188 199 232 274 281 284 287 300 299 297 273 265 262 SST (C) 19.8 18.9 17.8 17.7 17.4 17.0 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 84 81 78 77 75 72 71 73 74 74 74 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 75 73 72 70 67 66 67 68 67 67 67 66 200 MB T (C) -59.1 -59.0 -58.8 -58.5 -58.1 -58.9 -59.4 -60.2 -60.5 -59.9 -58.8 -58.6 -58.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 44 45 42 34 29 30 31 27 23 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 24 22 23 24 21 18 13 8 5 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 86 96 80 94 69 30 -1 37 52 46 52 52 200 MB DIV 30 8 11 22 19 -14 -19 -46 -55 -33 -39 -8 12 700-850 TADV -13 -7 2 19 26 40 -12 -33 -43 -36 -16 2 7 LAND (KM) 1566 1740 1761 1520 1280 948 775 674 545 446 397 336 265 LAT (DEG N) 39.6 40.4 41.1 41.6 42.1 42.5 42.1 41.0 39.4 38.4 37.7 37.1 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.4 33.4 30.3 27.5 24.7 20.7 18.5 16.9 15.5 14.3 13.5 12.7 11.9 STM SPEED (KT) 27 24 23 22 18 11 8 9 8 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 30 CX,CY: 28/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 3. -5. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 22. 26. 31. 36. 39. 41. 42. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -17. -29. -38. -45. -48. -50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)