* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 57 56 49 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 57 56 49 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 55 54 49 43 38 34 31 28 28 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 20 31 48 63 64 60 44 27 30 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 8 11 7 7 -2 4 12 4 5 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 191 236 286 283 284 295 302 310 303 312 321 311 N/A SST (C) 18.8 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.9 18.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 78 77 76 74 73 74 74 74 74 75 75 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 73 72 71 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.9 -58.7 -58.5 -58.3 -58.6 -59.4 -59.6 -59.7 -58.6 -58.8 -58.8 -58.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 45 45 37 31 30 23 17 18 19 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 21 22 21 16 13 9 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 89 79 87 72 32 1 32 44 13 -20 -24 N/A 200 MB DIV 11 18 26 18 -5 -29 -57 -68 -76 -46 -61 -48 N/A 700-850 TADV -9 7 13 18 38 9 -36 -49 -46 -34 -27 -17 N/A LAND (KM) 1708 1777 1509 1295 1081 794 605 392 209 62 -98 -132 N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.6 41.2 41.7 42.0 42.3 42.0 40.6 39.8 39.2 38.5 38.2 37.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.6 30.5 27.4 24.9 22.3 18.7 16.1 13.7 11.6 9.7 7.6 5.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 24 21 19 16 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 28 CX,CY: 25/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -10. -19. -24. -25. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 31. 35. 38. 39. 41. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -21. -22. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -6. -15. -31. -45. -54. -59. -61. -62. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)