* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 42 40 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 42 40 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 41 41 40 37 33 29 26 25 24 24 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 20 33 43 56 62 58 66 43 30 37 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 12 10 6 3 3 12 3 7 3 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 241 286 282 284 286 299 305 306 296 296 299 294 N/A SST (C) 17.8 17.6 17.5 17.3 17.2 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 76 76 75 73 74 74 75 75 74 75 75 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 71 71 70 68 68 68 68 67 67 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -58.5 -58.1 -58.3 -58.6 -59.3 -59.6 -59.3 -58.9 -58.5 -58.7 -58.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 44 45 43 36 31 31 26 21 18 18 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 21 21 18 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 69 73 66 60 16 0 38 37 16 -8 -17 N/A 200 MB DIV 20 15 9 1 -29 -36 -67 -63 -42 -37 -46 -35 N/A 700-850 TADV 12 17 18 41 36 14 -30 -47 -75 -27 -34 -13 N/A LAND (KM) 1775 1548 1323 1135 946 718 574 416 312 212 80 15 N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.2 41.6 42.0 42.1 42.1 41.2 39.7 38.7 38.0 37.4 37.3 37.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.5 27.9 25.2 22.9 20.6 17.5 15.8 14.0 12.6 11.3 9.8 8.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 19 17 14 11 9 7 6 6 6 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 24 CX,CY: 23/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. -1. -11. -21. -28. -31. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -35. -44. -49. -50. -51. -52. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/22/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/22/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)