ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 7 15 21 NA TROP DEPRESSION 3 9 18 28 38 46 NA TROPICAL STORM 92 76 67 58 44 33 NA HURRICANE 5 14 11 8 3 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 5 13 10 7 3 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN