ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 6 12 28 38 NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 19 26 35 45 41 NA TROPICAL STORM 86 73 60 48 25 20 NA HURRICANE X 6 8 5 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 5 8 4 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 7( 7) 20(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 7( 7) 21(28) 5(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN