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TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014
 
ANA remains a strong tropical storm this evening. Recent microwave
imagery from the 0507z SSMIS and a 0643z AMSU platforms available
on the FNMOC/NRL web sites indicate the LLCC may be near the
northeastern edge of the persistent cold central dense overcast.
this seems reasonable based on environmental vertical wind shear
estimates of 6 to 10 kt from the northeast according to the
latest CIMSS and SHIPS analyses. The most recent subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates for Ana are 3.5/55 KT from PHFO and JTWC...while
the SAB estimate is 4.0/65 KT. Due to the persistence of the deep
convection and intense lightening observed near the core of
Ana...the intensity is being nudged up to 60 kt toward the SAB
estimate as a compromise. 
 
Strong Tropical Storm Ana is currently moving toward the west...or
275 degrees...at 8 kt. Ana continues to be steered along this
course by a building deep layer ridge located to its north. The
current track forecast is close to the previous with a minor shift
to the left during the next 24 and 48 hours. The ridge will shift
southeastward Friday...which will begin to steer Ana toward the
northwest. Despite the fact there is still significant vertical
wind shear of near 50 kt between Ana and the Main Hawaiian
Islands...the forecast models do not currently show that Ana will be
impacted by these hostile environmental conditions along the
forecast track. Instead...Ana will be in minimal wind shear
conditions south of the ridge during the next 48 to 72 hours.
By this weekend...the forecast models indicate a mid-latitude trough
passing by to the north of Ana is expected to weaken the steering
currents. There is still a great deal of uncertainty about the
impact the upper level trough will have on Ana.

The intensity forecast is close to the previous...with Ana
potentially becoming a hurricane on Wednesday due to the relatively
.light vertical wind shear and warm SSTs along the forecast track.
The intensity forecast remains close to the ICON consensus
guidance. In addition...the CIRA Ocean Heat Content analyses along
the projected track show the value will ramp up during the 48 to 72
hour period...so there should be plenty of ocean warmth available
to the system as its winds are increasing. the peak intensity is
expected Thursday and Friday. A gradual weakening trend is forecast
this weekend as the previously mentioned vertical wind shear values
start to increase in the forecast guidance. Also...there may be
some interruption of the low-level circulation if it interacts with
any of the main Hawaiian islands.

Interests in the Main Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor
the future progress of Ana. A Hurricane Watch may be required for
portions of the island chain on Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 14.1N 146.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 14.3N 147.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 14.6N 148.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 15.1N 150.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 15.6N 152.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 17.9N 155.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 19.9N 157.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 21.6N 158.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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