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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014
 
The latest depiction of Tropical Depression Genevieve in infrared
satellite imagery appears to show the system is continuing to suffer
from the adverse effects of increasing southeasterly vertical wind
shear and the entrainment of some dry air. The latest UW/CIMSS
analysis indicates the vertical shear from the southeast is almost
10 kt. As a result, the latest subjective Dvorak fixes from PHFO,
SAB and JTWC indicated the current T number remains 2.0. Therefore,
the latest intensity will be maintained at 30 kt. More problematic
has been the short-term motion of the llcc. It appears that the
movement has been slightly erratic as the llcc began to separate
from the deep convection. This was confirmed by not only the
positions provided by the fix agencies, but recent SSMIS, TRMM, AMSU
microwave passes available from the NRL and FNMOC web sites allowed
us to confirm the actual position of the llcc. Based on the revised
track, the general motion of Genevieve is just north of due west at
06 kt.
 
The track forecast guidance continued to suggest the general
westward motion of the Tropical Depression will continue for the
next 4 to 5 days with a slight increase in forward motion starting
in the next 48 hours. As a result, we have made a slight adjustment
to the track, which begins to accelerate the tropical cyclone
westward from days 3 through 5.

The latest guidance for intensity appears to show the current trend
of increasing vertical wind shear will not abate for at least the
next 24. Even beyond 24 hours, the guidance also did not appear to
be as conducive for intensification of the system to a tropical
storm, even though SSTs remain above 27C along the forecast track.
Note, that the CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content also appears to
be somewhat favorable to sustain the tropical cyclone along the most
recent forecast track. For this advisory, Genevieve is forecast to
remain a tropical depression for the next 5 days, assuming it
survives the hostile conditions it will experience during the next
day or so. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 13.1N 150.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 13.1N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 13.1N 152.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 13.1N 153.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 13.1N 155.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 13.0N 159.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 13.5N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 13.5N 169.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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