ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014 500 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO suffer from the adverse effects of southeasterly vertical wind shear and the entrainment of some dry air. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CONVECTION WANING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. latest UW/CIMSS analysis indicates SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES NEAR 8 KT...BUT SHIPS INITIALIZED AT 16 KT OF SHEAR. THE HIGHER VALUE SEEMS MORE LIKELY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST SHOWING MOTION VECTORS NEAR 25 KT. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE. AN 0757Z ASCAT PASS FOUND 25 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS PASS DID NOT SAMPLE the EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INITIAL intensity FOR GENEVIEVE will be maintained at 30 kt. THE LLCC POSITION HAS BEEN REFINED WITH MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM...AMSU AND SSMIS PROVIDED BY THE NRL AND FNMOC WEBSITES. AN 1126Z VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND IMAGE ALSO DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED LLCC. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...MOVES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND ALSO REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING GENEVIEVE WILL NOT ABATE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...AND BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN DEPRESSION STATUS THAT LONG. Even beyond 24 hours WHEN SHEAR MAY DECREASE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HOLDING GENEVIEVE AT 30 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.1N 150.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.1N 151.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 13.0N 152.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 12.8N 154.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 12.7N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 12.5N 161.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 12.5N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 13.0N 171.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster JACOBSON/Houston NNNN