ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 02 2014
 
A burst of deep convection has brought Genevieve back to life as a
tropical depression for a second time in the Central North Pacific.
A 0719z Ascat scatterometer pass confirmed that a low-level
circulation center /llcc/ was present as these thunderstorms were
becoming invigorated. The most recent infrared satellite imagery
shows not only that reinvigorated Genevieve has developed a much
improved upper-level outflow pattern...but also it appears to be
tapping into deep tropical moisture to the southeast of the system.
The latest estimates of vertical wind shear also seem to indicate
that the environment is conducive for the system to remain viable in
the near-term. The current intensity estimates from the satellite
fix agencies show T numbers of 2.0 at PHFO and SAB, while JTWC has a
1.5. In addition to these Dvorak fixes...the 0719z Ascat pass
showed a broad swath of 30 kt winds just north of the llcc.
Therefore, this initial advisory will indicate an intensity of 30
kt...with a current motion of 265 degrees / 09 kt.
 
Genevieve is moving south of a subtropical ridge...which will
likely remain in place for the next few days. As a result...
dynamical and consensus track guidance appears to be tightly
clustered for the next 2 to 3 days. This guidance shows a slight
turn toward the west southwest during this time period at a slightly
faster forward speed. The current forecast track is slightly to the
right of most of this guidance through the next 72 hours. After
that... the forecast is close to the guidance on days 4 and 5.
 
More problematic is the intensity forecast...since there is a
chance Genevieve may already be a tropical storm. Assuming it is a
tropical depression, the forecast models, such as SHIPS, appear to
gradually intensify the system through the next 48 to 72 hours,
since vertical wind shear is assumed to be low and the SSTs are
greater than 27C along the forecast track. Therefore, the
current forecast indicates Genevieve may become a tropical storm
later today or tonight. After that some additional slight
intensification is forecast.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 10.6N 157.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 10.1N 159.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z  9.6N 162.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z  9.2N 164.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z  9.4N 166.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 11.0N 172.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 12.9N 177.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 14.8N 176.7E   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
NNNN