* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 05/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 38 38 31 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 38 38 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 31 27 27 28 21 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 10 13 20 23 26 31 48 49 57 61 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 3 2 6 6 6 3 6 0 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 90 139 147 186 185 175 194 226 258 278 279 282 278 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 27.2 25.2 24.7 25.2 25.3 25.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 164 162 160 137 115 110 114 114 109 106 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 11 9 13 10 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 71 66 54 46 45 48 53 52 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 17 16 12 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 31 35 44 54 60 56 31 24 12 -3 -8 200 MB DIV 197 161 133 135 127 117 71 24 12 5 10 0 0 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 0 -3 -8 0 6 10 7 5 7 2 LAND (KM) 878 765 652 497 343 44 -237 -108 83 309 400 381 425 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.5 13.4 14.5 15.6 17.6 19.4 20.8 22.1 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.1 106.7 105.8 104.9 102.8 100.2 98.3 96.6 94.6 93.2 92.6 92.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 12 14 14 15 13 11 10 8 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 63 59 50 48 35 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 25. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -9. -17. -24. -31. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 13. 6. 0. -9. -17. -24. -31. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 05/07/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 150.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 05/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##