* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 05/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 37 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 37 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 34 35 29 27 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 23 27 29 35 40 54 68 60 73 71 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 2 5 5 8 4 -6 4 -8 -7 -12 SHEAR DIR 158 167 175 185 189 197 222 236 265 271 280 281 289 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.5 26.9 25.0 23.4 23.3 23.9 23.9 23.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 153 151 134 114 97 96 100 98 94 86 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 10 12 11 700-500 MB RH 75 70 64 56 51 46 47 51 52 48 44 41 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 14 13 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 42 50 65 61 58 15 0 -24 -43 -37 -67 200 MB DIV 163 111 109 129 117 59 32 33 3 -6 8 0 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -8 5 2 6 -2 10 -2 31 LAND (KM) 649 521 393 243 93 -243 -213 -51 159 327 382 348 245 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 15.1 16.1 17.2 18.2 20.3 21.9 23.5 24.7 25.2 25.5 26.1 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.0 106.5 105.6 104.6 102.2 99.9 98.3 96.0 94.0 93.4 93.6 93.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 14 15 14 12 11 11 6 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 35 18 13 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -14. -26. -37. -48. -57. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 2. -8. -20. -34. -44. -54. -62. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 05/07/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 05/07/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##