* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 05/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 24 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 25 26 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 27 30 33 40 51 71 69 68 73 66 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 2 5 6 10 6 -5 -1 -5 -9 -11 0 SHEAR DIR 167 178 186 190 197 209 231 251 271 277 286 283 320 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.0 25.7 23.9 22.2 22.8 22.9 22.3 21.3 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 152 151 146 122 103 85 90 89 83 75 62 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -53.3 -53.5 -54.3 -54.8 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 10 7 12 9 12 9 14 6 700-500 MB RH 71 64 57 52 47 45 47 49 48 43 39 35 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 51 68 71 61 34 -10 -35 -41 -86 -62 46 200 MB DIV 116 113 130 118 86 45 28 24 -6 7 -7 -30 78 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -6 -9 0 4 5 4 3 7 19 51 LAND (KM) 515 371 226 68 -88 -362 -173 17 243 284 229 30 -267 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.5 21.6 23.4 25.2 26.2 26.8 27.7 29.5 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 106.2 105.5 104.5 103.5 101.3 99.5 97.3 94.8 93.6 93.4 93.5 93.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 13 13 13 9 5 6 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 20 13 14 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 13. 15. 15. 16. 15. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -19. -34. -47. -59. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -13. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -8. -18. -32. -45. -56. -67. -72. -74. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 05/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 05/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##