* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 05/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 26 26 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 26 33 35 42 54 63 62 73 68 71 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 6 6 8 2 1 1 -7 -6 -10 11 SHEAR DIR 186 185 191 193 197 214 236 259 271 280 282 295 280 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.3 25.3 23.5 23.0 23.7 23.6 22.8 21.8 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 152 150 138 117 98 93 98 96 88 79 73 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -53.1 -53.2 -54.1 -54.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 11 13 11 4 700-500 MB RH 65 60 53 49 47 46 46 47 41 39 35 35 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 15 13 10 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 51 62 72 63 51 5 -9 -27 -49 -35 27 11 200 MB DIV 91 94 93 81 82 35 46 15 0 8 -4 61 25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -6 -8 4 1 4 -1 13 0 27 9 LAND (KM) 416 271 127 -27 -184 -295 -112 121 278 350 269 162 -25 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.8 17.9 19.0 20.1 21.9 23.5 24.7 25.2 25.8 26.9 28.3 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 105.4 104.7 103.8 102.8 100.7 98.9 96.4 94.5 93.7 93.7 93.6 93.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 7 5 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 17 14 36 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -19. -32. -47. -57. -66. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -18. -21. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -5. -15. -24. -35. -46. -57. -67. -72. -74. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 05/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 05/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##