* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 05/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 31 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 31 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 29 28 27 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 28 34 36 44 62 62 72 72 75 44 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 7 5 1 0 1 -11 -5 -17 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 174 184 190 193 195 221 246 266 275 287 284 303 259 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.0 26.6 24.8 23.3 23.5 23.4 23.0 22.0 21.1 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 153 146 131 112 96 97 94 90 81 72 63 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 10 11 9 13 11 14 11 15 6 3 700-500 MB RH 58 53 50 46 45 45 48 47 43 38 34 41 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 56 65 52 55 38 -1 -22 -26 -49 -27 42 -31 200 MB DIV 77 60 56 54 50 29 18 -3 3 -6 -33 50 55 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -4 -3 3 1 4 4 14 9 25 2 LAND (KM) 360 195 30 -133 -269 -191 -10 182 254 294 165 46 -160 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 17.3 18.4 19.4 20.4 22.0 23.6 24.6 25.4 26.3 27.6 29.3 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 104.9 103.9 102.8 101.6 99.7 97.9 95.8 94.7 94.3 94.4 94.1 92.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 14 15 13 12 11 9 6 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 15 12 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -11. -22. -36. -51. -62. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -18. -30. -41. -54. -62. -66. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 05/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 05/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##