* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 05/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 28 27 27 27 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 30 33 36 44 53 54 64 64 77 63 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 4 1 0 3 0 -1 0 -7 0 6 SHEAR DIR 173 182 189 186 200 230 256 266 275 277 284 283 284 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 27.9 26.6 25.0 23.9 24.2 24.3 23.8 23.1 22.3 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 153 144 130 113 101 103 103 98 91 83 77 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -54.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 11 10 11 11 13 12 14 13 12 6 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 47 46 46 48 45 44 38 36 39 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 51 54 55 66 23 16 -11 -7 -2 -23 27 11 200 MB DIV 63 57 54 43 34 34 8 0 12 -6 10 21 49 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -5 0 0 2 1 9 4 24 0 15 LAND (KM) 288 127 -31 -150 -262 -178 13 153 244 238 220 219 140 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.4 20.2 21.6 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.6 25.7 26.9 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 104.1 103.1 102.1 101.1 99.5 97.7 96.3 95.4 95.2 95.0 94.8 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 4 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 38 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -11. -20. -33. -45. -56. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -28. -38. -49. -58. -67. -73. -78. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 05/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 05/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##