* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 05/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 25 26 26 27 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 30 34 34 40 45 56 53 64 64 69 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 -1 -2 2 11 0 6 -2 0 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 164 169 175 194 205 234 254 262 280 272 283 277 274 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.2 27.1 25.4 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.1 23.5 22.9 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 156 146 135 116 105 104 105 101 95 89 90 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 9 13 11 15 12 16 12 14 6 700-500 MB RH 52 49 48 46 43 43 46 45 42 38 34 38 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 9 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 55 63 49 26 20 9 1 0 15 31 20 200 MB DIV 48 53 47 38 21 19 0 -6 14 1 3 30 37 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 0 0 1 3 1 6 8 9 0 3 LAND (KM) 227 84 -24 -133 -242 -182 -15 92 163 193 182 163 261 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.3 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.9 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 103.0 101.9 101.2 100.4 99.2 97.9 96.9 96.2 95.9 95.8 95.6 94.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 12 10 10 8 7 5 4 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 37 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -19. -30. -40. -49. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -19. -29. -39. -49. -57. -64. -69. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 05/08/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 05/08/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##