* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 05/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 45 46 46 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 45 46 46 48 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 29 29 29 30 32 34 36 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 9 11 12 7 9 11 12 12 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 3 0 -2 -4 0 0 1 -4 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 274 234 217 193 189 190 160 175 156 153 112 131 115 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 159 157 156 154 152 151 151 150 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 67 65 64 65 62 62 58 57 54 53 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -2 -7 -1 4 3 22 26 15 9 0 8 17 200 MB DIV 51 59 86 74 81 85 109 119 97 100 78 48 59 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 890 908 925 949 973 986 1008 1007 995 982 967 951 957 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.8 103.6 104.4 105.1 106.3 107.4 108.1 108.4 108.5 108.4 108.3 108.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 1 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 35 30 33 39 45 48 41 41 43 43 44 45 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 20. 21. 21. 23. 24. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 05/16/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 05/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##