* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 05/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 45 45 43 44 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 45 45 43 44 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 31 33 34 36 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 12 14 13 11 12 14 14 14 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 0 -2 -2 -2 2 1 0 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 215 210 192 193 196 201 170 169 154 155 155 169 141 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 159 158 156 154 154 153 153 153 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -53.0 -52.2 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 66 66 65 61 58 56 53 55 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -8 -2 4 9 24 26 19 13 19 29 39 200 MB DIV 56 80 68 75 70 83 121 142 91 97 79 77 66 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 908 928 949 972 996 1018 1034 1069 1089 1114 1142 1185 1206 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.0 10.0 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.1 103.9 104.7 105.4 106.8 107.9 108.7 109.2 109.6 109.9 110.3 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 7 7 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 32 38 43 42 39 38 38 38 36 34 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 20. 18. 19. 19. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 05/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 05/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##