* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 05/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 48 49 48 48 48 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 48 49 48 48 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 31 34 36 39 43 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 13 13 8 8 7 9 7 8 7 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 0 -1 -4 3 5 6 -2 0 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 198 212 214 215 214 159 180 154 178 160 187 166 153 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 156 154 154 153 153 153 153 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 64 64 63 58 57 56 59 62 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 4 8 10 18 18 19 7 2 11 16 10 200 MB DIV 80 79 84 95 91 101 108 96 90 68 46 43 41 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1011 1033 1047 1064 1086 1115 1141 1160 1185 1197 1226 1220 1211 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.5 10.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.3 106.0 106.7 107.4 108.5 109.3 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.2 111.7 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 37 37 35 34 34 35 34 33 32 34 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 20. 23. 24. 23. 23. 23. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 05/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 05/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##