* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 05/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 19 22 26 27 29 30 33 36 39 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 19 22 26 27 29 30 33 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 19 20 21 24 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 12 9 11 13 14 11 13 7 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 0 -1 0 5 4 1 0 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 215 220 224 229 219 196 200 205 198 193 182 171 159 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 155 155 155 153 151 151 150 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 64 63 60 56 53 55 58 59 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 3 2 6 12 13 12 16 31 40 48 44 200 MB DIV 48 62 66 64 57 77 62 75 57 58 49 85 66 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1054 1089 1128 1157 1187 1241 1275 1295 1335 1371 1391 1390 1358 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.5 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.5 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.8 111.7 112.3 112.9 113.4 113.8 114.1 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 33 33 32 31 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 05/17/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 05/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##