* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 05/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 27 29 31 31 32 35 36 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 27 29 31 31 32 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 17 16 17 18 19 20 22 24 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 17 15 15 14 16 13 13 11 11 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 0 0 3 3 5 1 0 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 215 224 223 228 214 206 201 214 199 210 183 188 177 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 156 155 153 152 150 149 149 148 146 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 61 60 57 53 52 57 58 59 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 4 7 8 5 -10 -19 -13 -18 -15 -16 -12 200 MB DIV 55 63 57 67 55 61 42 24 24 23 39 28 32 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1089 1122 1157 1186 1212 1262 1289 1330 1358 1381 1406 1387 1354 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.7 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.8 112.6 113.3 113.9 114.3 114.8 115.1 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 34 33 32 31 33 36 41 44 47 48 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 870 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 15. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 05/18/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 05/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##