* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 05/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 39 41 42 43 43 43 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 39 41 42 43 43 43 44 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 35 36 36 35 36 37 40 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 14 13 12 7 13 13 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 3 6 6 6 2 2 -4 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 202 213 203 207 198 187 213 199 190 158 159 174 180 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 153 153 152 150 150 149 148 146 144 141 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 58 57 54 54 59 61 62 61 54 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 11 14 17 11 11 1 4 8 11 11 19 19 200 MB DIV 83 92 90 102 79 57 49 59 47 51 14 4 21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 1169 1196 1218 1239 1262 1297 1331 1351 1381 1406 1396 1353 1323 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.3 110.9 111.4 111.8 112.6 113.2 113.8 114.3 114.8 115.3 115.7 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 32 31 31 32 35 40 44 47 47 41 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 05/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 05/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##