* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 05/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 21 22 20 20 21 21 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 21 22 20 20 21 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 19 19 19 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 10 15 17 15 12 6 10 8 13 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 7 7 3 3 7 3 0 -1 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 226 188 208 225 239 258 279 245 235 208 197 178 198 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 152 152 151 149 147 144 142 140 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 57 55 54 55 55 56 57 57 54 50 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -7 -9 -10 -13 -10 -14 -19 -16 -13 -5 9 28 200 MB DIV 80 50 33 25 -1 -5 -11 -21 -21 -31 -17 -11 -26 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1357 1359 1362 1368 1374 1389 1414 1421 1403 1382 1373 1399 1422 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.1 113.4 113.7 113.9 114.5 114.9 115.4 115.7 116.1 116.3 116.8 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 30 32 39 41 43 43 38 34 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -22. -22. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 05/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 05/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##