* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 05/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 21 23 28 39 51 58 62 62 61 58 55 V (KT) LAND 20 19 21 23 28 39 51 58 62 62 61 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 26 33 44 55 65 70 72 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 3 4 8 2 3 2 9 10 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -4 -2 0 -7 -6 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 299 349 22 327 5 89 121 272 261 192 218 227 248 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 158 157 156 155 153 152 150 147 142 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 66 64 67 70 68 64 61 56 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 5 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -36 -35 -28 -18 0 4 10 11 7 7 23 27 200 MB DIV 9 24 22 9 30 43 7 33 33 27 11 12 5 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 945 943 935 924 918 908 897 882 889 907 935 951 919 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.0 105.5 106.1 106.6 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.3 111.1 111.9 112.6 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 58 60 53 43 37 38 38 32 22 17 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 861 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 8. 19. 31. 38. 42. 42. 41. 38. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 05/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 05/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##