* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 05/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 26 30 41 53 62 70 72 74 72 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 26 30 41 53 62 70 72 74 72 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 35 43 53 63 71 75 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 3 5 9 8 7 3 7 7 7 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 0 -4 -8 -5 -7 -6 -6 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 5 36 52 24 47 100 103 94 123 169 157 238 247 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 158 157 157 156 155 155 155 154 152 149 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 64 66 65 65 70 70 71 67 66 62 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -28 -26 -19 -12 -4 11 15 23 20 20 11 17 200 MB DIV 3 9 -2 33 44 25 13 17 47 34 44 41 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 946 951 953 946 943 945 951 962 986 1030 1063 1109 1161 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.8 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.3 104.9 105.4 106.0 106.5 107.5 108.6 109.4 110.3 111.1 111.9 112.7 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 52 57 58 54 45 36 37 36 31 26 23 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 6. 10. 21. 33. 42. 50. 52. 54. 52. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 05/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 05/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##