* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 05/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 27 31 42 51 59 63 65 66 68 67 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 27 31 42 51 59 63 65 66 68 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 33 40 47 54 61 67 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 9 7 8 7 11 8 8 5 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -6 -7 -3 -2 -5 -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 2 31 57 91 118 100 115 113 133 143 169 144 185 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 157 156 155 155 155 155 154 152 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 71 74 75 71 66 62 58 57 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -19 -14 -9 -10 12 21 29 26 25 15 25 21 200 MB DIV 9 37 58 52 48 60 18 24 45 52 36 44 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 991 987 987 994 1001 1010 1024 1045 1068 1103 1148 1203 1261 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.5 107.0 107.5 108.0 109.1 110.0 110.8 111.4 112.0 112.7 113.4 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 47 43 36 32 32 36 37 37 36 35 34 36 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 22. 31. 39. 43. 45. 46. 48. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 05/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 05/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##