* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 05/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 46 57 66 73 75 77 77 77 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 36 46 57 66 73 75 77 77 77 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 41 48 57 66 71 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 7 7 10 11 12 10 8 8 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -5 -4 -3 -7 -8 -5 0 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 52 82 115 115 121 124 112 94 109 143 147 175 158 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 158 157 155 155 155 155 154 154 153 152 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 74 78 77 73 68 63 62 64 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 13 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -10 -12 -6 4 19 32 28 29 24 27 25 19 200 MB DIV 46 62 63 54 104 66 54 78 72 62 62 60 70 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1027 1026 1027 1031 1037 1052 1062 1084 1105 1130 1150 1172 1210 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.8 108.3 109.2 110.0 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.2 112.6 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 34 31 31 34 36 37 37 39 40 39 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 37. 46. 53. 55. 57. 57. 57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 05/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 05/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##