* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 05/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 59 67 69 71 72 71 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 59 67 69 71 72 71 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 35 41 46 53 61 68 74 77 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 9 12 13 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 -8 -7 -4 -2 -5 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 74 107 113 129 143 122 101 112 142 146 159 201 230 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 156 155 155 154 154 154 155 154 148 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 75 77 80 80 77 72 66 62 62 61 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -3 7 17 30 33 27 27 26 22 16 5 200 MB DIV 53 74 86 130 124 48 46 70 81 42 47 51 56 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1037 1040 1044 1045 1046 1060 1054 1057 1065 1099 1126 1195 1254 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.5 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.6 110.2 110.7 111.1 111.6 112.1 113.2 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 31 31 33 35 37 37 36 37 37 36 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 34. 42. 44. 46. 47. 46. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 05/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 05/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##