* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012014 05/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 49 57 63 66 69 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 49 57 63 66 69 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 35 39 44 47 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 14 11 7 8 6 11 11 9 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -3 -6 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 177 186 177 173 168 161 157 174 181 211 206 187 147 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 155 155 154 154 153 153 154 155 155 153 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -51.8 -52.5 -51.5 -52.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 78 80 80 77 75 73 71 73 74 74 74 75 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 16 19 22 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 6 13 18 25 29 23 26 26 32 28 26 19 22 200 MB DIV 117 110 96 100 99 74 48 28 71 62 84 100 104 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 979 981 984 987 991 1001 1003 1002 1005 1021 1037 1109 1234 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 107.9 108.2 108.5 108.8 109.4 109.8 110.1 110.3 110.7 111.2 112.2 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 31 33 36 39 41 42 44 46 47 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 24. 32. 38. 41. 44. 45. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##