* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012014 05/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 52 61 64 68 73 74 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 52 61 64 68 73 74 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 33 37 42 46 50 53 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 12 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -5 -7 -7 -5 -5 -3 0 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 184 184 171 161 146 147 155 168 175 186 169 166 163 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 155 154 154 153 154 154 154 153 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 80 77 75 74 71 70 70 70 73 73 74 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 17 18 22 25 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 26 30 30 28 28 36 32 31 23 25 23 200 MB DIV 108 97 95 95 96 78 85 61 93 103 122 119 74 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 982 992 1003 1003 1005 1013 1011 1020 1045 1063 1088 1109 1109 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.3 109.8 110.1 110.4 110.8 111.2 111.8 112.3 112.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 32 34 35 38 40 42 44 45 47 47 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 10. 12. 16. 21. 22. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 27. 36. 39. 43. 48. 49. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##